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The Trader Advantage: Commodity Pairs Just Not Ready To Give It Up
Excerpts taken from The Trader Advantage Program
Aussie:
Price action started the day near the 0.9230 area, where it meet a resistance trend-line that has held the market since Nov 16 2009. Expectations are that the aussie will be able to push higher, but for now, the market seems more interesting in buying the U.S. rather than Australian dollars.
If this resistance area fails, the aussie could theoretically have an open path to test the 0.9320 and 0.9400 areas, if not, the path of least resistance that sets ups most potential, is in a buy-the-dip play off a test of support.
Elliot Wave: Final leg of an impulsive decline from 1.0627 in process. Move towards 1.0000 possible before going higher. Best moves after 2am ET. Daily range is 110 pips. Weekly range 25 pips. RSI is Short. SMA is @ 1.0320. 12-month 95% correlation to Oil moves. An oversold long bounce may be seen next.
Cad:
Price action has been lower, but interestingly, the Average Trading Range took a strong plunge over the last few days of trading as the pair weighs the consequences of a test of parity at $1. The 14-day ATR is currently holding at 85 pips, the lowest read since August 2008, and one of the weakest of the major pairs.
This is usually a strong sign that speculative interest is staying out of the market, and not supporting the downtrend. If this holds true, the Usd/Cad may more easily develop a near-term uptrend than any of the major currencies.
Elliot Wave: Final leg of an impulsive decline from 1.0627 in process. Move towards 1.0000 possible before going higher. Best moves after 2am ET. Daily range is 110 pips. Weekly range 25 pips. RSI is Short. SMA is @ 1.0320. 12-month 95% correlation to Oil moves. An oversold long bounce may be seen next.
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